$PATE
24EX9CQq…wNDwpump · called 8/26/2026, 4:06:46 PM
the call
SCALE IN
Coil is low and flow is not distributing. Build in tranches, not all at once.
PATE is quiet: coil 0.06, 1.6% of float trapped above.
conviction
49%
re-check in 29 min
the reasoning, as recorded at the time
- No coordinated insider cluster detected in the resolved holder set.
- Coiled supply 10.2% vs trapped supply 1.6% — more of the float is sitting in profit than is stuck underwater, so rallies get sold.
- Velocity of realization is -0.59 — flow is accumulating, not distributing.
- Trapdoor at $0.000203: the largest block of in-profit supply goes breakeven there. Below it, paper gains become a stampede.
- Ceiling at $0.000251: trapped bags get whole at that level and will sell into the first touch.
ladder given
24% at $0.000285 · 29% at $0.000380 · 20% at $0.000535 · 27% runs · hard stop $0.000197 (-13%).
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