$PATE
24EX9CQq…wNDwpump · called 8/26/2026, 7:36:49 AM
the call
SCALE IN
Coil is low and flow is not distributing. Build in tranches, not all at once.
PATE is quiet: coil 0.07, 4.0% of float trapped above.
conviction
36%
re-check in 42 min
the reasoning, as recorded at the time
- No coordinated insider cluster detected in the resolved holder set.
- Coiled supply 9.1% vs trapped supply 4.0% — more of the float is sitting in profit than is stuck underwater, so rallies get sold.
- Velocity of realization is flat (0.11) — no decisive flow in either direction.
- Trapdoor at $0.000170: the largest block of in-profit supply goes breakeven there. Below it, paper gains become a stampede.
- Ceiling at $0.000215: trapped bags get whole at that level and will sell into the first touch.
ladder given
24% at $0.000285 · 29% at $0.000369 · 20% at $0.000525 · 27% runs · hard stop $0.000164 (-23%).
Share this call
This call is in the public ledger whether it aged well or not.